Rugby World Cup: The Sides

With European qualifying starting last Saturday as the mighty Magyars from Hungary took on the belligerent Bulgarians and the 3 year countdown having just passed what better time for a look at the issues surrounding the 2015 Rugby World Cup in England?

This series will look into 5 areas:

The Stadiums, which ones are long-listed, are they suitable and which will be chosen?

The Schedule, how will the World Cup in England actually work?

The Season, can a proper domestic season really be fitted around the demands of the World Cup?

The Stats, how are we measuring up to that other World Cup?

The Sides, who are we going to be watching in 2015 and how are they getting here?

The Sides  

The Rugby World Cup keeps on breaking records, for the first time the number of teams entering qualifying has gone above 100 with 101 nations attempting to be part of England 2015.

Let’s start with the easy ones, the top 3 nations from each of the four pools at the 2011 World Cup have already qualified so we know we’ll see New Zealand, France, Wales, Australia, South Africa, England, Ireland, Argentina, Tonga, Scotland, Samoa and Italy in 2015. 

We also know that either Canada or the USA will be there as those sides play off for the position as Americas 1 next summer.  So just the 13 out 20 previous qualifiers guaranteed to get to the next World Cup, no matter what happens in between.  That’s healthy.  Anyway press on; the cynicism was meant to come later. 

The other side as good as qualified is Fiji who has a playoff against the winner of 2013 FORU Cup (featuring the combined might of the Cook Islands, Vanuatu, Tahiti, Solomon Islands, Papa New Guinea, Niue and new boys American Samoa) sometime in 2014.  American Samoa might be the newest nation in this part of the IRB but have much better and bigger ex-pat communities in New Zealand and USA to draw upon so may well come through though Papa New Guinea are probably the favourites. 

Japan are also heavy favourites to qualify but by means of being a better side rather than having a favourable qualifying system.  The 2014 Asian 5 Nations champions will qualify as Asia 1 and the runner up will be into the repechage playoff.  Rather shockingly the Asian 5 Nations actually runs on promotion and relegation from a second tier and then down to a third tier also.  So if Kazakhstan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei, Philippines, UAE, or Thailand put a run together they could all still qualify for the World Cup. 

3 years out and the whole rest of the Asian continent has already been knocked out, so fair and transparent but pretty brutal.

Africa’s system is also straight forward, ignoring the way South Africa are allowed to stay out of the fray and qualify automatically but that’s IRB politics for you (and South African politics too, if your era is pre 1990s).  The CAR Trophy is awarded the African Champion every year and in 2014 it will double up as the qualification tournament for the right to be Africa 1 in England. 

Due to the lack of cash knocking about in African rugby (if only they had a mega rugby economy to fund the whole continent) it’s not really like the Asian 5 Nations or the European Nations Cup which are round robin competitions, it is instead a 4 team knock out tournament decided in less than a week which is obviously more volatile and likely to have fluke winners. 

This is the continent most likely to give us a different qualifier from 2011 as Namibia have managed to get themselves into the situation that they must go unbeaten from here on in to appear in a 5th successive World Cup.  Unfortunately they haven’t done it by being over taken by a new power, rather they missed the 2011 tournament to play in the World Cup, they didn’t have the cash for both, so got relegated.  Fair enough, then the next year’s second tier competition was held in Madagascar. 

You might not know this but Madagascar is mad for rugby.  In front of 40,000 people Madagascar won 57-54 in extra time in a remarkable game which gained some fame world wide.  The winning try involved a no-look through the legs pass from the Madagascan fly half.  Pretty flair.  So if the Namibians fail in their quest who might we get instead?  Zimbabwe are the current African champions so are probably the favourites, Kenya are a top 7s side but seem to have gone off the boil in XVs recently and Uganda are the other side in the top tier.

Controversially there is no guaranteed second qualifier from South America, technically there is no guaranteed qualifier at all as Argentina qualifies through the top 12 route, the top non-Argentine side from CONSUR 2013 plays off against the loser of the Canada/USA match to qualify as Americas 2.  The loser of that match goes into the repechage tournament.  Who is that likely to be?  Uruguay has been that side for the past decade but Chile is historically the second best side in South America and is intent on regaining that mantel. 

Europe has 8 qualifiers, 6 through the 2011 World Cup (conveniently the 6 Nations sides), plus the top two from the 2013-14 European Nations Cup.  For those that don’t know the second and third tiers of European rugby run over 2 seasons at the same time as the 6 Nations with the 6 sides playing both home and away fixtures, whilst tiers 3-6 are played over the course of a whole year with 5 sides playing each other once. 

The champion and the runner up of the European Nations Cup 1A in 2014 qualify directly for the 2015 World Cup.  The winners of tiers 2-6 (confusingly called Division 1B and then Division 2A through to D) play off, in a fairly complicated system to describe: the winner of tier 6 (2D) plays the winner of tier 5 (2C), the winner of that match plays the winner of tier 4 (2B), the winner of that match plays the winner of tier 3 (2A), the winner of that match plays off against the winner of tier 2 (1B, decided over 2 years) to play the third place side in division 1A for a place in the repechage tournament.   

In the last 10 years Georgia has only finished outside the top 2 of the European Nations Cup once, so are pretty short odds to be in England.  The other European place is up for grabs: Romania had an impressive Nations Cup (a summer tournament not linked to the European Nations Cup, obviously!) and has never failed to appear at a World Cup so have to be favourites; Russia gained the second spot last time and has used the past year to try and blood new players; Spain are using their porous border to France to better effect and have a number of naturalised players too; Portugal are a Spain-lite in many ways, fewer “foreigners” than Spain but more than any of the Eastern Europeans and are the only western side to win the ENC since Italy’s ascension to the top level; Belgium are the new boys and on a roll, like Spain they benefit from some French players qualifying through ancestry and might be able to hit the ground the running and use some early momentum to spring some surprise results.

Then we have the Repechage Play Off.  This will feature the above mentioned sides, the second sides from Africa and Asia’s qualification process and probably the third side from Europe and the 4^th side from the Americas.  Last time Romania won through this route beating Uruguay over two legs.  The names might change but this time it’s probably going to be Europe versus Uruguay/Chile again.

A new team has appeared in every World Cup so whilst the cynic might think nothing ever changes a shock somewhere in the system is bound to happen.  That looks most likely to happen in Africa this time but could be Chile or Belgium or someone else entirely.

Rugby World Cup: The Stats

With European qualifying starting last Saturday as the mighty Magyars from Hungary took on the belligerent Bulgarians and the 3 year countdown having just passed what better time for a look at the issues surrounding the 2015 Rugby World Cup in England?

This series will look into 5 areas:

The Stadiums, which ones are long-listed, are they suitable and which will be chosen?

The Schedule, how will the World Cup in England actually work?

The Season, can a proper domestic season really be fitted around the demands of the World Cup?

The Stats, how are we measuring up to that other World Cup?

The Sides, who are we going to be watching in 2015 and how are they getting here?

The Stats

People often say that Rugby Union’s problem is that there aren’t as many likely winners of the World Cup as there are in Football’s equivalent.  But does that really stack up?  It’s true that 8 nations have won FIFA’s incarnation of the World Cup compared to 4 in the Rugby World Cup, but the 2010 South Africa World Cup was the 19^th tournament and the 80^th year since the World Cup began where as the RWC is only 24 years old and has only had 7 tournaments.

So where was Football after 7 tournaments or 24 years?  (Due to a small conflagration between European states there were no World Cups between 1938 and 1950)

Not as far ahead as you might imagine.  After 7 tournaments both World Cups had been won by 4 different nations, whilst going by years Rugby is ahead by 1.  Football had had 3 more nations represented by its 7^th final and 7 more in semi-finals, with 15 compared to 8.  Though going back to the years it is only 11v8.  The quarter finals make grim reading as Football has a much bigger lead with 19 quarter-finalists after 7 tournaments compared to 12 from Rugby. 

Part of this is because of the interesting formation of the Football World Cup.  As travelling costs were greater and travelling times longer and more arduous in the 1930s than the late 1980’s only 4 European teams travelled to Uruguay for the inaugural World Cup, whilst only 3 South American sides (not including defending champions Uruguay either) returned for the 1934 World Cup in Italy. 

That second World Cup was a straight knock out affair, as was the 1938 affair held in France, these being the only World Cups where such a format was used.  This certainly helped Cuba who qualified by dint of every other side from their region withdrawing then beating Romania, who themselves had only qualified when Egypt (at that time in UEFA) had also withdrawn, thus making a World Cup quarter final having won one match in the whole tournament against a side who hadn’t won any.  Whilst the 1930 world cup went straight to the semi finals (how USA managed to make a semi final in 1930 but not a quarter final until 2002) and the 1950 World Cup had no knock out rounds at all, the stages being replaced by a final round robin group. 

The 1950 World Cup was beset by problems from day 1, the teams behind the Iron Curtain refusing to participate; including former finalists Czechoslovakia and Hungary, whilst so many European teams refused to travel to Brazil FIFA was left to include almost any team that would travel.  That said England, who had previously arrogantly refused to enter the World Cup at all, were the only debutant nation after Scotland and India both pulled out.

Which is a very long way of saying that this makes Rugby’s 25 qualifiers after 24 years very acceptable compared to Football’s 31.  Even if Rugby’s qualification process leaves something to be desired.

Where Football, or perhaps FIFA, deserves a massive pat on the back and the IRB needs a kick up the backside is the hosting arraignments.  FIFA didn’t send a World Cup back for a second visit to any country until 1986, and that was only because the original host Columbia pulled out, and has never gone to a country 3 times. 

The 2015 Rugby World Cup will be the third World Cup in England and the fourth to have games in Wales.  I’m proud England will host this World Cup but really it is a travesty that Italy lost the hosting vote by 3 (in a vote where England and Wales had 4 votes and Italy only 1).  Though it must be said the spread of countries award hosting rights to the first 7 FIFA World Cups was hardly vast, with South America hosting 3 (Uruguay, Brazil and Chile) and Europe 4 (Italy, France, Switzerland and Sweden).  Rugby has hosted the World Cup on 3 continents with 1 in Africa, 4 in Europe and 3 in Oceania.

Rugby can also genuinely argue it is a more worldwide sport than football was at a similar stage.  Africa’s only representatives at this stage were all qualifying through UEFA and Football had no presence in Rugby’s now strongholds of Oceania.  The Rugby World Cup has had sides qualify from all 6 continents, had semi finalists from 4 and champions from 3.  All of these are better than Football.  We have a lot to thank South Africa for!

Perhaps as a consequence of the spreading of the FIFA World Cup to smaller nations the average attendance of the Rugby World Cup is almost 6,000 higher than Football’s equivalent, even after the 2011 World Cup which was the worst attended World Cup since 1987 (also hosted in alleged “hotbed” New Zealand). 

So what does all this mean?  Well not a huge amount, Rugby had its first international before Football after all so the round ball hardly started with any advantage but it does show that since Rugby sorted itself out in the 1980s and started trying to govern itself in a serious and global manner it has grown into a serious and global sport.  If the final reforms of the IRB into a truly representative governing body can be forced through there is no reason why our great game can’t go from strength to strength and be played properly in every country in the world.

Rugby World Cup: The Season

With European qualifying starting last Saturday as the mighty Magyars from Hungary took on the belligerent Bulgarians and the 3 year countdown having just passed what better time for a look at the issues surrounding the 2015 Rugby World Cup in England?

This series will look into 5 areas:

The Stadiums, which ones are long-listed, are they suitable and which will be chosen?

The Schedule, how will the World Cup in England actually work?

The Season, can a proper domestic season really be fitted around the demands of the World Cup?

The Stats, how are we measuring up to that other World Cup?

The Sides, who are we going to be watching in 2015 and how are they getting here?

 

The Season

31 weeks.  From the World Cup final, on the 31st of November, to England’s tour in Australia, starting June 12th, is only 31 weeks.  31 weeks to fit in 24 Premiership games, 9 European games, 6 LV Cup games and the 6 Nations too.  Maths buffs will notice that those numbers add up to 39.  So something’s got to give.  Quite a lot has to give frankly.

The first compromise that must be reached is pushing the Australian tour back one week by making it a 2 test tour rather than a 3 test tour.  It is a bit of a joke that England goes on tour the summer after a World Cup anyway and even more of a joke that they play the same side 3 weeks in a row.  This gives a week more breathing space without starting to eat into the next season.  The other compromise must be that reached is Premiership rugby playing right through the 6 Nations.  There is no option not to.

The IRB require all professional domestic rugby to stop during the World Cup and PRL have already agreed a compensation package with the RFU/England 2015.  This is a sensible compromise from the RFU as the clubs will be facing major disruption even if they are in line to benefit from a successful tournament, and is an example of the current good relations between the bodies.  Clubs like Wasps, Irish, Sale and, if they are still with us, Welsh are in a far more perilous situation than the other clubs as they have no means of generating revenue during those fallow weeks.  A few conferences are hardly going to replace 3 full Franklin’s Gardens but it does keep some cash flow going.  Frankly I don’t think PRL would want to play during the World Cup group stages anyway; you are flogging an inferior product than normal and going up against 10 games a week which are going to sell an average of 55,000 tickets.

The knock out stages are another question, I think that to make the fixture list work the first two weeks of the LV Cup group stages must be played before the World Cup and the last two rounds on the quarter final weekend and the semi final weekend.  There will only be 4 matches on the first weekend and 2 on the second, so the LV Cup fitting around the other matches seems a sensible compromise.  The semis and the final would, as now, be played during the 6 Nations.

How the European competition will look is the biggest unknown, it looks likely that some form of restructured competition will emerge from the wreckage of ERC and that competition will still be a 9 round tournament.  The group stages will either be played as 3 blocks of 2 games with the quarter final after the 6 Nations, as currently, or more likely the French will get their way and the calendar will shift so that there is 2 blocks of 3 games, all before Christmas, and the quarter final will be in January, with the semis and final in April. 

Either way the Premiership will have to have 4 rounds of games mid week.  If they decide to start the season on the Sunday after the World Cup final that goes down to 3.  If they play the whole LV Cup during the World Cup period it goes down to 2. 

Given the recent record of English clubs in Europe it is possible they would organise a round of fixtures on the weekend of a European Cup final.  Worst case scenario (or best case really) 2 games would go ahead and that would require all 4 teams involved in the European finals being in different games.  More realistically only a couple of games would have to be moved.  This is hardly ideal, as you would be making life very hard for a successful side but these are extra ordinary times and bad weather has forced Championship clubs to deal with much tougher fixture lists.  In the first European season Tigers had to play league games mid week after progressing to the final, it would hardly be new.  Otherwise we will have some clubs forced into playing mid week rugby whilst having a weekend blank on the fixture list.

These varying numbers of mid week games could occur at any time, if Europe is played in 2 blocks of 3 games all in November and December then the Premiership would have only played 2 games by Christmas; some early mid week games might be played to give the table some shape.  Or Premiership Rugby might look at playing games around Bank Holiday weekends (Easter is 27^th of March, other Bank Holidays are 2nd and 30^th of May), with a Good Friday and an Easter Monday round of fixtures for instance.  This has a long history in both Football and League. 

These various permutations make a block of European fixtures more attractive as they also leave us with a block of domestic fixtures, it is easier to mould a schedule to allow 3 games in 10 days if you have 4 weeks to play with rather than 2 weeks here and 2 weeks there of different competitions.

Premiership Rugby chiefs will be praying for a mild winter, and preparing for a freezing one, as no permutation of the schedule has any slack for cancelled fixtures.  This sounds harsh and a recipe for trouble but really is only forcing investment in facilities that would be useful for years to come.  Tents and anti-frost systems are hardly new or onerously expensive, just pricey enough for there always to be something more important to spend the money on; this is the perfect excuse to invest.

So what do we know for sure? 

 

That the World Cup final is on October 31^st and the Premiership final will almost certainly be on June 5^th, 31 weeks later.  31 weeks to fit in a whole season.  31 weeks to fit in 39 games.